How accurate has IPO grey-market premium been?
Grey-market premium (GMP) is an unofficial, unregulated signal, not a forecast. Across the 18 Indian IPOs we followed from a last pre-listing GMP quote through to the real listing-day open, GMP pointed the right way (above vs below the issue price) 78% of the time, and overstated the listing gain by a median of 7 pp. Treat any single premium loosely.
How often does an Indian IPO actually open above its issue price?
Of the 1209 IPOs that have listed on the NSE since 2003, 917 (76%) opened above their issue price, at a median of +11%. A base rate, not a promise, and not what any single GMP is guaranteeing.
The two boards differ, and a blended figure flatters one of them. Mainboard issues opened above their issue price 71% of the time across 505 listings, at a median of +10%. SME issues, 79% across 704, at a median of +11%.
Built from the exchange's own past-issues record joined to its daily price archive, measured on the listing-day open. It describes a population. It is not a forecast for any single issue.
Has grey-market premium actually been right?
Across the 18 issues we followed from a GMP quote through to listing, the premium pointed the right way 78% of the time, and overstated the listing gain by a median of 7 pp.
The record, issue by issue
| IPO | Board | Listed | GMP implied | Actual open | Error (pp) | GMP direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qualiance International Limited | SME | 11 Sep 2026 | +57.5% | +77.1% | -19.6 | Right |
| Deepa Jewellers Limited | Mainboard | 8 Sep 2026 | +12.4% | +24.9% | -12.5 | Right |
| Purple Style Labs Limited | Mainboard | 7 Sep 2026 | +0.0% | -7.0% | +7.0 | Right |
| Ashutosh Fibre Limited | SME | 7 Sep 2026 | +34.8% | +52.2% | -17.4 | Right |
| Shanti Inorganics Limited | SME | 7 Sep 2026 | +38.6% | +90.0% | -51.4 | Right |
| ESDS Software Solution Limited | Mainboard | 4 Sep 2026 | +53.6% | +76.5% | -22.9 | Right |
| Priority Jewels Limited | Mainboard | 4 Sep 2026 | +12.0% | +15.0% | -3.0 | Right |
| Lumino Industries Limited | Mainboard | 3 Sep 2026 | +42.7% | +34.1% | +8.6 | Right |
| Annu Projects Limited | Mainboard | 2 Sep 2026 | +0.0% | -27.3% | +27.3 | Right |
| Sumax Engineering Limited | SME | 2 Sep 2026 | +24.8% | +9.9% | +14.9 | Right |
| Symbiotec Pharmalab Limited | Mainboard | 1 Sep 2026 | +20.7% | +0.0% | +20.7 | Wrong |
| Hy-Tech Engineers Limited | Mainboard | 1 Sep 2026 | +75.5% | +41.5% | +34.0 | Right |
| Skyways Air Services Limited | Mainboard | 1 Sep 2026 | +24.6% | -10.1% | +34.7 | Wrong |
| Augmont Enterprises Limited | Mainboard | 31 Aug 2026 | +36.2% | +22.0% | +14.2 | Right |
| Tempsens Instruments (India) Limited | Mainboard | 28 Aug 2026 | +105.0% | +111.3% | -6.3 | Right |
GMP implied = the last grey-market premium recorded before the issue listed, as a % of the issue price. Actual open = the listing-day opening gain over the issue price, from the exchange price archive. Error = GMP implied − actual, in percentage points; a positive error means the premium was too optimistic. A quote taken after listing is not a prediction and is never used.
Method & sources
Grey-market premium is collected from public grey-market sources and stored with its timestamp. Listing-day opening prices come from the NSE and BSE price archives. For each issue we take the last GMP quote recorded strictly before the listing was captured (a quote taken afterwards knows the answer and is not a prediction), and compare the gain it implied against the gain the issue actually opened at. Every figure on this page is ours, derived from those two sources; nothing here is an aggregator's number restated.
Data & analysis only. Not investment advice. Not a SEBI-registered research analyst. GMP is unregulated and self-reported; this page exists to show how loosely it should be held.